Credit & Volatility
10Y-2Y Yield Curve
FRED T10Y2Y • Daily
The curve is a macro warning, not a market-timing device. It can stay inverted for a long while before a recession unfolds.
Data sources
A transparent, free-tier foundation
This MVP uses public and free-tier sources and labels each metric by its real update cadence. Lagging monthly and quarterly series are not presented as daily. Data mode: Supabase.
Credit & Volatility
10Y-3M Yield Curve
FRED T10Y3M • Daily
The signal is about macro risk, not crash timing. It can invert well before markets react, and it can normalize before the real economy weakens.
Credit & Volatility
High-Yield Credit Spread
FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 • Daily
This is a credit market signal, not a direct stock-market forecast. It can stay tight for a long time in a strong economy.
Credit & Volatility
Investment-Grade OAS
FRED BAMLC0A0CM • Daily
Investment-grade spreads can stay tight for long periods in healthy expansions. This is a backdrop signal, not a standalone market forecast.
Credit & Volatility
VIX
FRED VIXCLS • Daily
Low VIX is not a safety signal. It often means the market is underpricing the possibility of a sudden move.
Macro
10Y Treasury Yield
FRED DGS10 • Daily
The yield is not a bubble signal on its own, but it can shape the risk-reward backdrop for the market.
Macro
Sahm Rule
FRED SAHMREALTIME • Monthly
The Sahm Rule is a recession trigger, not an equity signal. It usually confirms stress after unemployment has already begun moving.
Macro
Unemployment Rate
FRED UNRATE • Monthly
It is a lagging indicator, so it is more useful for context than for sounding the first alarm.
Sentiment & Leverage
AAII Sentiment
AAII • Weekly
Sentiment surveys are noisy and can stay extreme for a while. They work best as a secondary check rather than a primary trigger.
Sentiment & Leverage
CBOE Put/Call Ratio
CBOE • Daily
The signal is short-term and can swing on positioning rather than fundamentals. It works best as a sentiment backdrop, not a standalone timing tool.
Sentiment & Leverage
Crypto Speculation
CoinGecko • Daily
Crypto market cap is noisy, young, and structurally different from equities. It should be treated as a sentiment proxy, not a valuation anchor.
Sentiment & Leverage
Margin Debt
FINRA • Monthly
Margin debt trends can be slow and are impacted by regulatory changes and market structure. It is better used as a leverage backdrop than a standalone timing signal.
Valuation
Buffett Indicator
FRED / Wilshire 5000 + GDP • Daily / quarterly
GDP is quarterly and lags the market, so the ratio is smoother and slower-moving than daily price moves.
Valuation
S&P 500 ÷ M2
FRED SP500 / FRED M2SL • Daily / monthly
This is a rough liquidity-based context metric, not a precise valuation tool, and there is no single standard formula for it across analysts.
Valuation
Shiller CAPE
Robert Shiller / Yale • Monthly
The series is a valuation proxy, not a timing tool. Markets can stay expensive for years, especially when growth expectations are strong.
Attribution notes
- FRED / ALFRED series are used for Treasury, volatility, credit, GDP, labor, and monetary indicators.
- Robert Shiller / Yale is used for long-run CAPE context.
- Stooq or Shiller-style long-history index data should be used for S&P history where FRED licensing is too short for dot-com-era charts.
- CoinGecko is used as the free crypto-market proxy.
- CBOE and FINRA are listed for the next sentiment and margin-debt additions; they are not silently treated as daily data until implemented.
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