10Y-3M Yield Curve
The gap between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields.
10Y-3M Yield Curve is at the 74th percentile since 1982, running close to the middle of its history.
0.6%
74th percentile • 28% of the way to its prior froth peak
Historical context
Red bands mark major stress windows.
What this metric is telling us now
The 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread compares long-term rates with very short-term policy-sensitive rates. It has a strong history as a recession warning when it inverts.
Why it matters
A negative 10Y-3M spread says the bond market expects easier conditions ahead, often because growth is expected to weaken. That can make an expensive market more fragile.
Source and caveats
- Source: FRED T10Y3M
- Update frequency: Daily
- Last updated: Jul 6, 2026
- Composite contribution: 74 subscore in Credit & Volatility; category score 78.6.
- Caveats: The signal is about macro risk, not crash timing. It can invert well before markets react, and it can normalize before the real economy weakens.
Methodology note
Each metric is oriented so higher means frothier, converted to a percentile against its own history, and then averaged within its category before the category scores are averaged into the composite.
This site is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, asset, or strategy. The metrics, the composite bubble score, and any alerts are not forecasts and are not a signal to act. Markets can stay overvalued or undervalued for long periods, and past patterns do not guarantee future results. The data is aggregated from third-party sources, is provided "as is," and may contain errors, gaps, or delays. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any financial decision.