10Y-2Y Yield Curve
The gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields.
10Y-2Y Yield Curve is at the 68th percentile since 1976, running close to the middle of its history.
0.3%
68th percentile • 13% of the way to its prior froth peak
Historical context
Red bands mark major stress windows.
What this metric is telling us now
A narrowing or inverted curve often precedes slower growth and recession risk because longer-term bond yields fall faster than short-term yields when the market anticipates a slowdown.
Why it matters
It is a classic recession signal, and a sharply inverted curve can be a warning that the market is becoming more fragile even if a crash is not imminent.
Source and caveats
- Source: FRED T10Y2Y
- Update frequency: Daily
- Last updated: Jul 6, 2026
- Composite contribution: 68 subscore in Credit & Volatility; category score 78.
- Caveats: The curve is a macro warning, not a market-timing device. It can stay inverted for a long while before a recession unfolds.
Methodology note
Each metric is oriented so higher means frothier, converted to a percentile against its own history, and then averaged within its category before the category scores are averaged into the composite.
This site is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, asset, or strategy. The metrics, the composite bubble score, and any alerts are not forecasts and are not a signal to act. Markets can stay overvalued or undervalued for long periods, and past patterns do not guarantee future results. The data is aggregated from third-party sources, is provided "as is," and may contain errors, gaps, or delays. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any financial decision.