Unemployment Rate
The share of the labor force that is unemployed.
Unemployment Rate is at the 80th percentile since 1948, hotter than most prior readings.
4.2%
80th percentile • 43% of the way to its prior froth peak
Historical context
Red bands mark major stress windows.
What this metric is telling us now
The unemployment rate offers a real-economy check on how the market is being supported by the broader economy.
Why it matters
High unemployment usually implies less consumer strength and more recession risk. It can also be a useful context check on valuations.
Source and caveats
- Source: FRED UNRATE
- Update frequency: Monthly
- Last updated: Jun 1, 2026
- Composite contribution: Context only; not included in the composite.
- Caveats: It is a lagging indicator, so it is more useful for context than for sounding the first alarm.
Methodology note
Each metric is oriented so higher means frothier, converted to a percentile against its own history, and then averaged within its category before the category scores are averaged into the composite.
This site is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, asset, or strategy. The metrics, the composite bubble score, and any alerts are not forecasts and are not a signal to act. Markets can stay overvalued or undervalued for long periods, and past patterns do not guarantee future results. The data is aggregated from third-party sources, is provided "as is," and may contain errors, gaps, or delays. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any financial decision.