10Y Treasury Yield
The yield on a 10-year US Treasury note.
10Y Treasury Yield is at the 61th percentile since 1962, running close to the middle of its history.
4.5%
61th percentile • 19% of the way to its prior froth peak
Historical context
Red bands mark major stress windows.
What this metric is telling us now
The 10-year Treasury yield is a key anchor for discount rates and a proxy for the market's view of growth and inflation. It also matters because it sets the backdrop for equity risk premium.
Why it matters
Higher yields can pressure valuations, while lower yields tend to support higher prices when the economy is still healthy.
Source and caveats
- Source: FRED DGS10
- Update frequency: Daily
- Last updated: Jul 2, 2026
- Composite contribution: Context only; not included in the composite.
- Caveats: The yield is not a bubble signal on its own, but it can shape the risk-reward backdrop for the market.
Methodology note
Each metric is oriented so higher means frothier, converted to a percentile against its own history, and then averaged within its category before the category scores are averaged into the composite.
This site is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, asset, or strategy. The metrics, the composite bubble score, and any alerts are not forecasts and are not a signal to act. Markets can stay overvalued or undervalued for long periods, and past patterns do not guarantee future results. The data is aggregated from third-party sources, is provided "as is," and may contain errors, gaps, or delays. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any financial decision.