S&P 500 ÷ M2
The index level divided by broad money supply, in billions.
S&P 500 ÷ M2 is at the 100th percentile since 1998, near the top of its historical range.
0.33x
100th percentile • 98% of the way to its prior froth peak
Historical context
Red bands mark major stress windows.
What this metric is telling us now
This ratio strips out the mechanical effect of money-supply growth on asset prices. It helps frame whether the market is reaching extremes relative to the amount of money circulating in the economy, not just relative to its own price history.
Why it matters
When the index rises faster than the money supply backing it, the market can become increasingly detached from the underlying monetary backdrop -- a liquidity-driven rally rather than one grounded in broader economic growth.
Source and caveats
- Source: FRED SP500 / FRED M2SL
- Update frequency: Daily / monthly
- Last updated: Jul 6, 2026
- Composite contribution: 100 subscore in Valuation; category score 99.33333333333333.
- Caveats: This is a rough liquidity-based context metric, not a precise valuation tool, and there is no single standard formula for it across analysts.
Methodology note
Each metric is oriented so higher means frothier, converted to a percentile against its own history, and then averaged within its category before the category scores are averaged into the composite.
This site is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, asset, or strategy. The metrics, the composite bubble score, and any alerts are not forecasts and are not a signal to act. Markets can stay overvalued or undervalued for long periods, and past patterns do not guarantee future results. The data is aggregated from third-party sources, is provided "as is," and may contain errors, gaps, or delays. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any financial decision.