Shiller CAPE
A long-run earnings multiple that smooths business-cycle noise.
Shiller CAPE is at the 99th percentile since 1871, near the top of its historical range.
41.97x
99th percentile • 92% of the way to its prior froth peak
Historical context
Red bands mark major stress windows.
What this metric is telling us now
Shiller CAPE compares current prices with average inflation-adjusted earnings over the prior 10 years. It is a classic valuation signal because it smooths business-cycle swings and avoids overstating the effect of a single strong or weak year.
Why it matters
CAPE is one of the most widely watched long-horizon valuation metrics. Elevated readings tend to coincide with lower subsequent returns over the next decade, although they do not predict a precise market top.
Source and caveats
- Source: Robert Shiller / Yale
- Update frequency: Monthly
- Last updated: Jul 6, 2026
- Composite contribution: 99 subscore in Valuation; category score 99.33333333333333.
- Caveats: The series is a valuation proxy, not a timing tool. Markets can stay expensive for years, especially when growth expectations are strong.
Methodology note
Each metric is oriented so higher means frothier, converted to a percentile against its own history, and then averaged within its category before the category scores are averaged into the composite.
This site is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, asset, or strategy. The metrics, the composite bubble score, and any alerts are not forecasts and are not a signal to act. Markets can stay overvalued or undervalued for long periods, and past patterns do not guarantee future results. The data is aggregated from third-party sources, is provided "as is," and may contain errors, gaps, or delays. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any financial decision.