Hyperscaler Capex-to-Revenue Divergence
How much faster combined hyperscaler capex is growing than their revenue.
Hyperscaler Capex-to-Revenue Divergence is at the 100th percentile since 2017, near the top of its historical range.
49.9pp
100th percentile • 100% of the way to its prior froth peak
Historical context
Red bands mark major stress windows.
What this metric is telling us now
Compares the year-over-year growth rate of combined capital expenditures at Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta with the year-over-year growth rate of their combined revenue, computed directly from each company's SEC XBRL filings. A rising gap means AI infrastructure spending is compounding faster than the sales it is meant to support.
Why it matters
Capex at these four companies has been growing far faster than revenue through the AI buildout. That gap is the clearest numeric expression of the 'spending now, monetizing later' bet underpinning the AI trade -- the wider it gets, the more the trade depends on future demand showing up on schedule.
Source and caveats
- Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL (company filings)
- Update frequency: Annual (automated, keyless)
- Last updated: Dec 31, 2025
- Composite contribution: 100 subscore in AI Buildout; category score 100.
- Caveats: Live updates are computed from each company's PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment and revenue XBRL facts via SEC EDGAR's free companyconcept API (no key required), matched by calendar year of fiscal-year-end and only combined when all four companies report both the current and prior year. The single seed value below is one real, precisely computed point (FY2024 to FY2025 combined revenue, from each company's own 10-K/earnings release, +14.7%, versus Epoch AI's reported 2024-to-2025 combined hyperscaler capex growth of +81.4%; note that Epoch AI's capex figure includes Oracle alongside these four, a scope mismatch this one bootstrap point inherits -- the live SEC-only feed replaces it with an apples-to-apples figure once ingestion runs). The four companies have different fiscal year ends (Microsoft's is June 30), so calendar-year bucketing blends slightly offset fiscal periods. Revenue growth is total company revenue, not AI-specific revenue, since AI-only revenue is not separately disclosed.
Methodology note
Each metric is oriented so higher means frothier, converted to a percentile against its own history, and then averaged within its category before the category scores are averaged into the composite.
This site is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, asset, or strategy. The metrics, the composite bubble score, and any alerts are not forecasts and are not a signal to act. Markets can stay overvalued or undervalued for long periods, and past patterns do not guarantee future results. The data is aggregated from third-party sources, is provided "as is," and may contain errors, gaps, or delays. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any financial decision.