High-Yield Credit Spread
The extra yield investors demand to hold junk bonds.
High-Yield Credit Spread is at the 91th percentile since 1998, near the top of its historical range.
2.7%
91th percentile • 76% of the way to its prior froth peak
Historical context
Red bands mark major stress windows.
What this metric is telling us now
The high-yield spread measures how much more yield investors demand for lower-quality corporate debt. Tight spreads often accompany complacency and excess risk appetite.
Why it matters
When spreads compress too far, the market can become more vulnerable to a sudden repricing. Wide spreads usually signal stress and reduced risk appetite.
Source and caveats
- Source: FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2
- Update frequency: Daily
- Last updated: Jul 6, 2026
- Composite contribution: 91 subscore in Credit & Volatility; category score 78.6.
- Caveats: This is a credit market signal, not a direct stock-market forecast. It can stay tight for a long time in a strong economy.
Methodology note
Each metric is oriented so higher means frothier, converted to a percentile against its own history, and then averaged within its category before the category scores are averaged into the composite.
This site is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, asset, or strategy. The metrics, the composite bubble score, and any alerts are not forecasts and are not a signal to act. Markets can stay overvalued or undervalued for long periods, and past patterns do not guarantee future results. The data is aggregated from third-party sources, is provided "as is," and may contain errors, gaps, or delays. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any financial decision.