Buffett Indicator
US market cap relative to US GDP.
Buffett Indicator is at the 99th percentile since 1945, near the top of its historical range.
218.1%
99th percentile • 93% of the way to its prior froth peak
Historical context
Red bands mark major stress windows.
What this metric is telling us now
The Buffett Indicator divides the total US stock market cap by US GDP. It is a broad valuation ratio that places today's equity market against the scale of the economy.
Why it matters
A very high ratio suggests the market is absorbing a growing share of the economy's output. It is most useful as a long-horizon valuation condition, not a precise timing call.
Source and caveats
- Source: FRED / Wilshire 5000 + GDP
- Update frequency: Daily / quarterly
- Last updated: Jan 1, 2026
- Composite contribution: 99 subscore in Valuation; category score 99.33333333333333.
- Caveats: GDP is quarterly and lags the market, so the ratio is smoother and slower-moving than daily price moves.
Methodology note
Each metric is oriented so higher means frothier, converted to a percentile against its own history, and then averaged within its category before the category scores are averaged into the composite.
This site is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, asset, or strategy. The metrics, the composite bubble score, and any alerts are not forecasts and are not a signal to act. Markets can stay overvalued or undervalued for long periods, and past patterns do not guarantee future results. The data is aggregated from third-party sources, is provided "as is," and may contain errors, gaps, or delays. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any financial decision.