AAII Sentiment
The spread between bullish and bearish responses in the AAII survey.
AAII Sentiment is at the 53th percentile since 1998, running close to the middle of its history.
22%
53th percentile • 0% of the way to its prior froth peak
Historical context
Red bands mark major stress windows.
What this metric is telling us now
AAII sentiment captures how bullish or bearish individual investors feel about the market. Extreme optimism can foreshadow lower future returns, while extreme pessimism can signal the opposite.
Why it matters
Very high bullishness often coincides with crowded positioning and lower future risk-adjusted returns. Extreme pessimism can be a useful contrarian sign.
Source and caveats
- Source: AAII
- Update frequency: Weekly
- Last updated: Jan 1, 2026
- Composite contribution: 53 subscore in Sentiment & Leverage; category score 75.75.
- Caveats: Sentiment surveys are noisy and can stay extreme for a while. They work best as a secondary check rather than a primary trigger.
Methodology note
Each metric is oriented so higher means frothier, converted to a percentile against its own history, and then averaged within its category before the category scores are averaged into the composite.
This site is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, asset, or strategy. The metrics, the composite bubble score, and any alerts are not forecasts and are not a signal to act. Markets can stay overvalued or undervalued for long periods, and past patterns do not guarantee future results. The data is aggregated from third-party sources, is provided "as is," and may contain errors, gaps, or delays. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any financial decision.